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Three scenarios that will lead to the same one ending

18.03.2017
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Most sincere patriots are now being consolidated around several scenarios of how things will be developing and each of them will lead to the loss of independence

Scenario #1 Blockade the enemy “until we win”

This scenario is being implemented today and that’s why it seems to be for many people the most plausible way to solve a lot of problems in the nearest future. The authorities and blockade workers have “united” in order to completely stop the freight turnover with specific regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Of course these “allies” have different goals. Authorities want to save their electoral support and those, who initiated blockade, want to stop the situation of this “endless terror”(An endless artificial war, which is an effective way for oligarchs and people in power to gain revenue) and, if it’s possible, to become authorities themselves.

However, both sides don’t say anything about the fact that the freight turnover with Russia during last couple of months rose as much as it fell with specific regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine’s economy collapses quickly and we start depending on Russian Federation much more than we did and Russian Federation takes over Donbass with blockade’s help. The only way to break the vicious circle is to declare war, but in this case Ukraine will be the one to attack Russia and the consequences will be tragic.

Scenario #2. Withdrawal of the blockade.

This scenario is greatly supported by manufacturers, some part of Ukrainians and (not officially) people in power. However, if the government tries to end the blockade by force this will to chaos and country’s segmentation. The economy will be sentenced and either radicals will come in power (which will give Russia reasons to act with more enthusiasm) or those manufacturers and pro-Russian politicians .With all the ensuing consequences.

Scenario #3. Blockade-not blockade.

People in power and initiators of the blockade are turning it into another type of illegal business. All the things that Ukraine needs are being “quietly” delivered from Russia, whereas Russia gets what it wants from Ukraine. Strikes of truckers, miners or metallurgists make politicians come to an agreement. Corruption rises, economy suffers from a crisis, Western partners start looking for radical methods to get rid of the problem in the heart of Europe. With all the ensuing consequences.

As you can tell, even the most sincere feelings of citizens of the country (which is a fuel for the development and all sorts of reforms) burn down without any hope for the situation’s enhancement. But despair and anomie that come instead is a true historic sentence.

See also:

A Pun on the Minsk Subject

Where do Ukrainian Arms Shoot?

 
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