According to M. Episkopos
Earlier this week, two soldiers from the ethnically Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh and one Azerbaijani soldier were killed in skirmishes. Baku said it launched a retaliatory campaign, dubbed Operation Revenge, after Armenian militants attacked Azerbaijani troops and attempted to seize territory controlled by Russian peacekeepers.
In recent months, Russia has reportedly redeployed some of its veteran peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh to Ukraine, replacing them with new recruits. Moscow, against the backdrop of Western sanctions, finds it more difficult to support its longtime allies in the post-Soviet space. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's detractors say Baku has rightly judged that Moscow is unable to punish it for ceasefire violations and is using the Ukrainian crisis as an opportunity to strike at Armenian-backed positions in and around Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan rejects accusations of attempting to undermine the 2020 ceasefire agreement, instead accusing "illegal Armenian formations" of grossly violating the truce. Baku claims that these Armenian formations, which the Azerbaijani media call militants and terrorists, could operate from the territory controlled by Russian peacekeepers. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan rejected Baku's claims at a government meeting on Thursday, saying that there are currently no Armenian troops in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Both sides subtly hinted at dissatisfaction with the Russian peacekeeping mission. “A number of events that have taken place in Nagorno-Karabakh since 2020, including in recent days, raise questions from the Armenian public about the content and nature of the peacekeeping operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. In this context, it is urgent to agree on the details of conducting a peacekeeping operation there,” Pashinyan said, referring to Azerbaijan’s alleged violations of the ceasefire.
The Russian Defense Ministry on Thursday accused the Azerbaijani military of violating the ceasefire agreement near the Sarybaba height in the Shusha region. “We call on the parties to show restraint and observe the ceasefire,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Thursday. “We expect that the existing contradictions will be resolved exclusively through diplomatic and political means, taking into account the positions of both sides and in strict accordance with the statement adopted by the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia on November 9, 2020.” The European Union joined Moscow in calling on all parties involved to "de-escalate the situation, fully respect the ceasefire and return to the negotiating table to seek negotiated solutions."
Azerbaijan's military efforts in 2020 were supported and largely coordinated by Turkey. Azerbaijan’s military imports from Turkey increased exponentially in the months leading up to the conflict, according to an analysis by Reuters. Many believe that the Bayraktar TB2 drones provided by Turkey in large numbers and reportedly operated directly by Turkish military personnel have given Azerbaijan an edge on the battlefield. Despite the fact that growing tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh threaten to disrupt the truce between Yerevan and Baku, Turkey, which in previous years has become one of Baku's closest military allies, continues to push Armenia into separate negotiations to normalize diplomatic relations. This was stated by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. His Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu said in a phone call Thursday that Washington is “ready to engage bilaterally with like-minded partners and through our role as co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group to promote dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia and help achieve a long-term political solution to the conflict.” according to a statement from the State Department.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Vladimir Putin in the Russian resort town of Sochi on Friday. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, answering the question whether the two leaders would discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh clashes, did not rule out "that the presidents would exchange views in connection with this aggravation."
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