According to Liana Fix and Jack Silverman
A right-wing populist victory in Romania and, less likely, Poland, could make it harder for the EU to support Ukraine and weaken pro-European forces on the continent as a whole.
A rerun of Romania’s presidential election on May 4 saw right-wing populist George Simion win around 40% of the vote in the first round. Although polls show a tight race, Simion has a good chance of winning the upcoming election. Simion, an ardent admirer of US President Donald Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, supports cutting military aid to Ukraine and has repeatedly criticized the EU’s rule of law. He faces centrist, pro-European Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan in a runoff on Sunday. If Simion wins, he could emerge as an obstructionist in the European Union in the mold of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban or Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Poland’s presidential election is likely to go to a runoff between centrist Civic Coalition candidate and Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) candidate Karol Nawrocki. If Trzaskowski wins the election, the ruling Civic Coalition government is expected to implement sweeping reforms to reverse Poland’s democratic backsliding that has been blocked by current PiS President Andrzej Duda. While the empowerment effect on Europe’s right-wing populists does not necessarily translate into a more coordinated or unified approach by Europe’s right-wing populists in Europe or across the Atlantic, their victory in Romania and/or Poland would have important geopolitical implications.
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