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Forecast for Ukraine from the “National Interest” or How will the poorest country in Europe deal with coronavirus?

31.03.2020
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By M. Hering and D. Kline

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-will-poorest-country-europe-deal-coronavirus-138927

 

In most scenarios of the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine, including quarantine measures, a recession is forecasted, and in the best scenarios, an economic recession of 5-10 percent, inflation and half a million unemployed.

After a reshuffle in the government by President V. Zelensky, the yield on short-term Ukrainian Eurobonds soared from 3.5 to 7.75 percent per year. Now the Ukrainian hryvnia is falling, and the international financial market is already closed to Ukraine. The country needs about $ 10 billion from the International Monetary Fund, so parliament is forced to pass unpopular laws.

In the south of Ukraine in hospitals 130 mechanical ventilation for four million people. Forty are currently used in intensive care units. This means that when the COVID-19 epidemic is in full swing, only seventy of them will be available to patients.

The overall picture is monotonously gloomy. In Ukraine, there are 6,000 mechanical ventilation devices for a population of 44 million, while in Germany, with its 82 million people, there are 25,000 devices, and 10,000 more have just been ordered.

The pandemic will hit Ukraine hard, and the government has already closed airports and stopped public transportation. Work at home has become the norm for those who can work remotely.

But there are real limits to how long these precautions can last. A recent online survey showed that only 27 percent of Ukrainians have enough savings to survive more than a month if the government enforces strict quarantine.

Ukraine is only at the beginning of the epidemic, and its resources are almost exhausted.

 
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