https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2024-12/world-2025
US: Will Trump make a grand deal with Beijing?
When Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20, he will have the choice and the power to make one. But he may also choose the path of confrontation.
Artificial Intelligence: An Opportunity for AI to Become Fairer
In 2025, actions on global AI governance will become clearer as countries balance the urgent need for greater international cooperation with rising geopolitical tensions.
Europe: Can Germany Resume Its EU Leadership?
The German Bundestag elections on February 23 will shape European politics in 2025. Germany’s economy, the EU’s largest, contracted for a second year in 2024, and its traditional backbone, the auto industry, is struggling.
Global Health: Time to Prepare for the Next Pandemic
Negotiations on the “Pandemic Compact” — the first global agreement specifically for international cooperation on pandemics — are running overtime and should be ready for adoption at the World Health Assembly in Geneva in May.
Defense and Security: Trying to Fill the Gaps in Europe’s Security System
Global conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Sudan are intensifying, risking spillover, and Trump’s resumption of “America First” in 2025 will reduce the US’s global defense commitments, forcing allies to rethink their strategies and strengthen their own.
Middle East: Iran, Syria, and Further Instability
There is little hope of resolution to the conflicts in the Middle East in 2025. The new US administration will build its regional strategy around two pillars: Israel’s security and containing Iran.
2025 will be a fateful year for Ukraine
Western policy of keeping Ukraine in the war, rather than helping it to a just end, will bring the country - and, by extension, the Western world - to the brink of defeat by Russia.
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