According to V. Savaram
Every four years, the United States joins or leaves the Paris Agreement, spending billions of dollars on clean energy subsidies or taking them back. While Washington dithers, foreign warming emissions—the vast majority of the world’s total—threaten the planet’s climate. It’s time to take a realistic look at the current agenda and dismantle three major misconceptions.
The world’s climate goals are achievable. They’re not achievable. The 2015 Paris Agreement’s internationally agreed goal of limiting the global average temperature to “well below” 2°C by the end of the century is almost certain to be missed, given that global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. Likewise, a goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 is completely implausible.
Cutting domestic greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries could make a significant difference. Domestic emissions in the US and EU contribute little to global warming. They will account for about 10 percent of future global cumulative emissions in 2025–2100. China and developing and emerging economies, including India, Indonesia, Brazil, and South Africa, will account for more than 80 percent of that total.
The transition to clean energy is necessarily a win-win for combating climate change.
In fact, the unfolding energy transition carries serious economic risks for oil and gas producers, including the US. On the current course of the global transition to clean energy, China, as the dominant producer of such technologies, will have an undeniable advantage.
Climate realism is about accepting the reality of the situation: preparing for a negative climate change scenario, pressuring developing economies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, and making smarter transitions to clean energy.
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