Israel recognized a golden opportunity to exploit Iran’s weakness following the collapse of its trusted Hezbollah-led “Axis of Resistance,” as well as Israel’s operational achievements in its October 2024 attack on Iran, which destroyed Tehran’s strategic air defense system. The fact that the path to Iran was open to the Israeli Air Force was a significant factor in the decision to launch the attack, especially given that Iran was making dangerous progress in its enrichment program. In addition, Israel had recently received intelligence that Iran had reactivated its “weapons group” in pursuit of nuclear weapons. The goal of the Israeli operation was not defined as the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear program. Even before Friday’s attack, it was clear that Israel had relatively limited ability to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities without the active participation of the United States. However, Israel can significantly delay Iran’s nuclear program (at least for a year), mainly by striking sites — starting with Natanz — killing the nuclear scientists who are the key bottleneck in the program and damaging additional sites. However, without a strike on the Fordow enrichment facility, which would likely require U.S. participation, Iran’s nuclear program cannot be destroyed, only significantly delayed.
The Trump administration and the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are closely aligned in their goals, but less so in their means. They both share the goal of preventing the Islamic Republic from ever acquiring nuclear weapons. But in terms of means, Trump wanted to avoid war — he wants to be the president of peace through force, and he has people talking in one ear about supporting Israel and in the other about staying out of wars in the Middle East.
The crisis carries the risk of paradoxically accelerating the spread of nuclear weapons. If this conflict does not completely eliminate the current and future threat of Iranian proliferation, Iran's experience in uranium enrichment means it can simply rebuild it and do so with greater desire to succeed next time.
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