US President-elect Donald Trump has made no secret of his intention to get tough on China, starting with his threats to impose 60 percent tariffs on Chinese imports. In doing so, the new Trump administration is also giving China an opportunity to expand its influence. Trump’s “America First” foreign policy is likely to lead to the US partially or completely withdrawing from the international organizations and initiatives that have been the cornerstones of its hegemony – creating a vacuum that Beijing will seek to exploit.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision is of international order, not chaos. But it is an order that favors non-binding partnerships based on shared interests. In practice, this will give China significant influence because of the size of its economy, its technological leadership, and its growing military might.
Beijing is seeking to realize its vision of global order by reforming the United Nations and advancing its own international initiatives and regulations. Since 2021, Beijing has unveiled three global initiatives related to its influence at the UN: the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI), and the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI). The GSI, which has been endorsed by the UN General Assembly and UNESCO (from which Trump previously withdrew the US), is a tool through which China has sought to strengthen its role as a global mediator, including by promoting a peace plan for Ukraine with Brazil. The GDI is an evolution of the approach to international development implemented through the Belt and Road Initiative, which has established China as a key development partner for countries in the Global South. The GSI is a framework for international security cooperation to counterbalance US military alliances.
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