https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/02/unpromising-future-japan-south-korea-us-trilateral-cooperation
US Vice President J.D. Vance delivered a speech that shocked European allies at the Munich Security Conference this month, calling into question the US commitment to European security. But on the sidelines of the event, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with the foreign ministers of Japan and South Korea.
It was the first high-level meeting of the Japan-South Korea-US trilateral relationship since Donald Trump became president. While the three sides reaffirmed their “unwavering” partnership in their joint statement, the new Trump administration’s approach has cast doubt on another important US partnership.
The Japan-South Korea-US trilateral arrangement matters for strategic reasons. It allows the US and its Indo-Pacific partners to discuss regional issues, jointly develop responses to challenges, and signal cohesion. But Trump’s diplomacy views such alliances as sources of potential short-term gain rather than long-term strategic value.
Trump’s return to the White House puts the trilateral organization at risk for two reasons. First, unlike Biden, Trump views alliances as dependencies that can be exploited to maximize benefits to advance his “America First” agenda. Second, the U.S.’s willingness to mediate between Japan and South Korea has previously created room for friction amid the two countries’ historical animosities and contentious political issues. Therefore, the prospects for the alliance are also in question.
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