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Chatham House: Russia and China Are United Not By Values, But By Dissatisfaction With US Hegemony

18.05.2024
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https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/05/chinas-alignment-putin-uneasy-its-rivalry-us-makes-him-too-useful-abandon

Russia's invasion offers China a poignant lesson about its own economic resilience, a critical element of what President Xi has called "comprehensive national security." In 2023, Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as China's largest oil supplier. Because Beijing has placed energy security at the core of its economic security, these Russian supplies are vital amid geopolitical rivalry with the collective West.

Russia has also become a destination for many Chinese high-tech industrial goods at a time when weak domestic consumer demand in China and the promotion of “risk reduction” by Western political elites have created a dangerous cocktail that is hampering the country's economic recovery.

At the same time, trade volumes with Russia are growing, although on a much smaller scale than with Southeast Asia. Beijing is conducting a pilot study to explore ways to develop its economic trajectory without depending on Western demand, so trade with Russia could become more important.

Diplomatically, Beijing's long-term cooperation with Russia is increasingly linked to their shared dissatisfaction with US hegemony rather than shared values. Deepening bilateral cooperation in recent years has allowed the two countries to demonstrate great power status on the world stage to counterbalance US dominance.

Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has inadvertently created an opportunity for China to renew efforts to strengthen ties with the Global South, which does not view the war in Ukraine in Western black-and-white terms. China's position on the war has been supported by many major economies in the global South, such as India and South Africa, which also continue to develop their warm relations with Russia.

China's constant talk about energy and food security is also resonating with developing countries, which have been hit hard by the economic fallout of the war and are still trying to rebuild their economies after Covid-19 by reviving trade and investment.

The transformation of the BRICS grouping into BRICS Plus, with the addition of four new members in January, as well as China's growing influence in the leadership of most UN-related institutions, are all part of Beijing's attempt to forge a global partnership to counterbalance the US.

Isolation from the collective West looks like an unattractive option for China. But siding with the West against its nuclear-armed neighbor to the north, which has more than 4,000 km of common borders, is even worse for Beijing - while the US is building a grid of alliances in the south. Beijing's relationship with Moscow continues to test its diplomatic capabilities and economic resilience.

As challenging as this may be, China's ties to Russia are an example of how geographic and strategic necessity shapes a country's foreign policy priorities. However, like any relationship - even “without restrictions” - they, of course, have their boundaries.

 

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