According to Josh Lipsky and Sophia Busch
1. Will Trump try to fire the head of the Federal Reserve?
For all the concerns about the future of the US dollar, one of the few real threats in the short term is uncertainty about the independence of the Federal Reserve.
2. What impact will the new US tariffs have on China?
While the first wave of tariffs was aimed at helping the economy weather the pandemic, the next wave could hit China faster and harder. The rest of the world seems poised to take advantage of this.
3. Has China’s Belt and Road Initiative been revived?
It’s likely. New data for 2023 shows that this was the first year since 2016 that Chinese lending to African countries increased year-on-year.
4. Will the Global South gain more votes in the IMF?
Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in 2023 that India and the Global South would not accept another unfair Bretton Woods-style deal. However, there is no clear plan of action yet. Donald Trump is unlikely to agree to a solution that favors China. However, we should not expect Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi or Xi Jinping to make concessions. We may be on the verge of a new battle for Bretton Woods.
5. What awaits US dollar-backed stablecoins?
There are currently $170 billion worth of stablecoins in circulation worldwide, 98 percent of which are pegged to the dollar. However, about 80 percent of the turnover of US dollar-backed stablecoins occurs outside the United States. This is due, in part, to their widespread use in Europe, India, and Southeast Asian countries for remittances and access to dollars.
Central banks and finance ministers are looking to the new US Treasury Secretary for answers on how to manage all these new dollars circulating in their economies.
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