The Group of Twenty (G20) leaders' summit, scheduled to take place in Bali, Indonesia on November 15 and 16, will take place against a backdrop of deepening global divisions. Strategic competition is heightening tensions between the United States and China, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is eliciting echoes of a possible new Cold War, and diverging economic policies could further widen the gap between advanced and emerging market economies, as well as developing countries.
Indonesia's G20 presidency will not be an easy task. From the outset, it faced two challenges: keeping the G20 agenda relevant and bringing together divergent interests and aspirations, especially between developing and developed countries. The G20 has been criticized for losing its relevance due to its inability to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic and the crisis it has caused.
Indonesia is trying to focus the G20 agenda on three priorities: a global healthcare architecture, digital transformation and a sustainable energy transition, in addition to post-pandemic macroeconomic policies. To some extent, she managed to direct the discussion in the G20 to a few critical issues. However, Indonesia faces difficulties in bringing together the various interests of the G20 members.
The war in Ukraine and rising geopolitical tensions elsewhere make coordination nearly impossible. The world needs cooperation more than ever to deal with the growing risk of crises - from inflation to insecurity to the threat of economic recession - but addressing issues is much more difficult in the context of geopolitical competition.
Given these tensions, the Indonesian presidency is unlikely to generate any consensus on commitments. A series of G20 ministerial meetings failed to agree on a communiqué. Executives meeting in November are likely to face similar challenges in drafting. However, the success of the G20 this year cannot be measured by official documents alone. Given the pressure from some members - they are threatening a boycott if Russian President Vladimir Putin is present - maintaining the integrity of the G20 is a great achievement for Indonesia.
Indonesia's main challenge now is to keep the process going. To that end, it should focus the summit on timely global issues such as food security, digital transformation and energy. President Joko Widodo should keep geopolitical discussions to a minimum while emphasizing the importance of cooperation. The next challenge is to ensure that important issues continue to be discussed during India's presidency next year and to keep the G20 active. Indonesia should bring back the spirit of the Bandung Declaration of 1955, when thirty countries in Asia and Africa, mostly less developed at the time, agreed to declare their Cold War non-alignment and promote cooperation.
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